Beyond Agronomy News: May 27th 2009
Agronomy
Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills)
This Week in Scouting
- Check early-May seeded canola for frost damage. Call AFSC if you must reseed.
- Scout frost damage fields of canola for flea beetle pressure. Weak plants attract insects!
- Scout for potential wireworm damage to prepare for next year's crop protection.
- Continue to monitor emergence patterns.
Canola survival and outlook from May 22 frost event
I've looked at dozens of canola fields around the Calgary, Drumheller and Three Hills areas over the last two days and have found significant frost damage, although I've made no recommendations to reseed so far. The fields which are most at risk are those seeded late-April to early-May. Those canola fields received extensive damage to the cotyledons but minor damage to the growing points. I would estimate that roughly 50 to 60% of the canola has emerged with the potential for another 10 to 30% to emerge this week with warmer temperatures. Here's my suggested plan of attack for this week:
- Go back to your records and check your target plant stand densities or your seed bags for 1000 kernel weights to estimate your density targets. Then, measure the number of plants you have per square foot to see how much of your population has emerged. I've you only have 3 to 4 plants per square foot, chances are you still have some crop to emerge. In fact, I scouted a number of fields yesterday planted 21 days ago with newly emerged canola and some still hiding under residue.
- Frost damaged cotyledons do not mean the crop is a write off. Be sure to check the first leaf coming out of the middle of the plant to check for green leaf material. The growing point or apical meristem is where the new leaf is formed. If the leaf is green and pliable, not hard or crispy, the plant will survive.
- Be sure to check the entire field on a diagonal including the high and low spots to give you a representative average. You may have dead zones but not enough to justify a reseed.
- An average of 1 to 2 plants per square foot is enough to produce an average to above average crop if warm moist conditions follow. In 2007, I counted 455 pods on one plant in a stand that had 1 to 2 plants per square foot.
- Call in second opinions to discuss options if you're seriously thinking of reseeding. SL
Your canola survived the frost, so now what?
If your canola received frost and you've decided not to reseed, there are a few things to keep in mind as we move further into the growing season. First, frost damage delays maturity and can wreak havoc on herbicide timing and swath timing. Be sure to scout your fields and get a good idea of the crop staging and it's recovery to avoid herbicide injury, especially in Roundup Ready fields.
Next, frost damage reduces a plants ability to digest and metabolize herbicide. The last thing you want to do now is stress the plant even more by applying a herbicide before it's had time to recover. Spraying before the plant has recovered will cost you yield and maturity.
Last, frost damage weakens the plant which invites insects. Insects are keenly aware of which plants are weak and seem to always attack the unhealthy or thin stands. Flea beetle pressure has been minimal to this point but with a warm week ahead, they may become active and begin to damage weak plants.
In the picture above, you can see how the cotyledons have been severely damaged, but the growing point in the middle is still green and healthy. You can imagine what a shot of glyphosate would do to this little fellow right now. Once again, Mother Nature forces us to be patient and let the canola recover as much as possible to ensure we get the most out of yield. SL
Reseeding options
The way I see it, reseeding at the end of May leaves you few choices. If you're left with 1 plant per ft2 and a potential 20 bushel canola crop, you're looking at roughly $200 an acre in revenue potential. If you were to reseed to wheat or canola, you may end up with nothing or frosted canola and feed wheat. Both canola and wheat are roughly 110 days to maturity, which brings us to September 15th before the first fall frost. That's asking a lot in this country! That leaves feed barley with a potential yield of 70 bu/ac at $2.75 to $3.00 a bushel or roughly $200 an acre. Malt barley is out of the question because most producers fertilize canola heavily and late seeded malt barley coupled with high nitrogen equals high protein. Also, if you plan to reseed now, the lack of surface moisture would force you to leave it in the dust or seed it deep into moisture.
To do list if you must reseed:
- Call AFSC and have them adjust the field. They must sign off before you re seed if you want to collect crop insurance. If they write it off, you can receive $50 an acre.
- Call the seed company to inform them you are reseeding. Each company has a risk share agreement where they return a portion of the seed costs.
- Pioneer Hybrids refunds 50% of seed costs.
- Canterra refunds 25% of seed costs.
- Bayer CropScience refunds 25% of seed costs.
- Monsanto will refund up to 640 acres worth of RoundUp Weathermax, if that's what you used on the RR acres you've had to reseed. SL
Watch for flea beetle pressure on frost damaged canola
I've seen very few flea beetles in my travels this spring. In fact I've only seen two striped flea beetle activity so far. Two striped flea beetles can be active in lower temperatures versus the crucifer flea beetle which prefers warm weather. The week ahead looks warm and the potential for seed treatment expiring has now raised the risk for potential damage. If you noticed a large number of flea beetles at swathing last year, there's a good chance they've migrated to adjacent fields of newly seeded canola.
Pest Description
Flea beetles attacking canola, mustard and rapeseed are small, elliptical or oval-shaped and less than 2.5 mm (0.1 in.) long. When disturbed they use their powerful hind legs to jump away like a flea and hence the name, flea beetle. Adult crucifer flea beetles are uniformly black with a metallic bluish sheen. The two striped flea beetle shown below has two orange to yellow stripes down the back of its wings.
Scouting
Scout fields daily, especially in areas with high flea beetle pressure last year. Assess damage to cotyledons and the first true leaves of seedlings. Continue scouting for the first 14 to 21 days after emergence, especially on sunny, calm days when temperatures exceed 14degrees C. Scouting twice a day may be warranted when weather conditions are ideal for flea beetle feeding. Begin your scouting along headlands, especially those adjacent to canola stubble.
Striped flea beetle. Photo source: unknown.
Crucifer flea beetle. Photo source: Canola Council.
25% damage (Spray Threshold). Photo source: Canola Council.
50% damage. Photo source: Canola Council.
Damage Assessment
Canola seedlings can withstand 50% leaf loss. However, flea beetles can locate attack and quickly injure or destroy seedlings shortly after emergence. Therefore, the action threshold for flea beetle feeding on canola is when there is 25% defoliation and flea beetles are present. Applying controls at 25% defoliation will reduce the risk of flea beetle damage reaching a level where yield loss and plant development are substantially reduced.
Control Tips
Under high beetle pressure and feeding damage, a delay of one to two days can result in loss of entire fields. If damage is limited to only the edge, spraying only part of the field may reduce flea beetle numbers. Apply insecticides during the sunny, warm part of the day when beetles are actively feeding on the plants. During years when flea beetles are abundant through June, a yield loss of about 10% can be common even when the crop is protected with insecticidal seed treatments. Under these conditions a later foliar treatment (21 days after planting) may be necessary to protect the crop from re-infestation.
Source: Canola Council of Canada
Registered Insecticides
Decis: 40-60 ml/ac
Matador 120EC: 34 ml/ac
Sevin XLR: 200 ml/ac
Refer to the Crop Protection Guide for mixing and application instructions.
Watch for wireworm damage
Now is the time to begin scouting fields with histories of wireworm damage. Wireworms can spend roughly four years of their life cycle as larvae in the soil. They prefer cool, moist soil and tend to be active in the top six inches of the soil. Early in the growing season, they are attracted to the carbon dioxide produced in the germination process and will come to the surface to feed on emerging plants. This is the time when they will cause the most damage to crops, usually by shredding below ground plant tissue.
Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills)
Pest Description
Wireworms are slender, cylindrical, hard-bodied insect larvae reaching up to 4 cm (1 1/2in.) in size. They are usually copper-brown but when newly molted they can be soft-bodied and white. Adult wireworms are beetles that have the ability to flip themselves upright when placed on their backs, making an audible click as they do, giving them their name "click beetles."
Wireworm (larvae) and click beetle (adult). Photo source unknown.
Scouting
Soil samples can be sieved to find any wireworms present in the field. Samples can be collected using a post-hole auger and a series of soil sifting screens or by marking out areas 50 cm x 50 cm (20 in. x 20 in.) and sieving the soil to a depth of 15 cm (6 in.). Repeat in different areas of the field to determine an average number of larvae per square meter (sq. yd.).
Damage
Sometimes wireworm damage is confused with cutworm damage. Remember that with wireworms the plant is wilted and discolored but remains attached to the root. With cutworms the plants are usually cut off completely at or near the soil surface.
Economic Thresholds
An action threshold of about 32 wireworms per square meter (sq. yd.) is often recommended. If wireworms are found at this or a higher density, seed treatment is usually warranted in following years.
Control Tips
Control of wireworms is through seed treatments applied prior to planting. CruiserŽ, containing the active ingredient thiamethoxam, is currently the only registered seed treatment for control of wireworms. Some agronomists recommend that growers treat seed for two consecutive years after breaking sod to reduce the problem to a non-economical level. This should be done only if the risk of an infestation is high. If wireworms are found in an emerging crop, there is no 'quick fix'. Often, the damage occurs or is seen too late to reseed the damaged patch. Also, the loss in yield does not justify the cost of re-seeding. The best plan is to consider what action may be necessary for the following year.
Source: Canola Council of Canada, Saskatchewan Agriculture, Manitoba Agriculture
For more information on wireworms, refer to the following links:
Larval stages
Management strategies
Carbon Market News
Who's Doing What With GHG Policy in Western Canada
The greenhouse gas (GHG) policy landscape is changing quickly in Western Canada and it seems to be pretty hard to know who is doing what these days. It would appear that the debate over climate is over and the debate over how to best to solve it has just begun. With the Federal Government deciding to let the Provincial Governments show the leadership in this area, we now have unique policies and regulations in each of the western provinces.
British Columbia (BC) has adopted the infamous carbon tax. By taxing the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) based on the amount of GHGs they emit, behavior is expected to change. In other words, by taxing fossil fuels and not energy sources without GHG emissions we are given an incentive to make green choices. The tax is considered revenue neutral which means that it corresponds to an equal amount of tax reductions within the BC economy. The tax is currently set at $10/tone of C02e, but rises by $5/tonne per year starting this July 1, stopping at $30/tonne of C02e by 2012. Included in the BC GHG reduction scheme is the Pacific Carbon Trust, which purchases GHG offsets to help meet the reduction targets set out by the Provincial Government. The stated reduction target includes a 33% reduction from 2007 levels by 2020, and 80% by 2050.
Alberta was the first out of the gate in 2007 with the Climate Change and Emissions Act that set intensity based limits and then reductions. The idea here is that the carbon footprint per unit of production is mandated by the Act to decline over time. So large final emitters (LFEs) can continue to ramp up production but must reduce the GHG intensity of what they produce. This approach has not been adopted anywhere else and has been losing popularity almost by the day as it allows total GHG emissions to rise with increases in production in the intermediate term. The stated reduction target is 14% below 2005 levels by 2050.
Saskatchewan recently introduced the "The Management and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases Act" which sets a cap on GHG emissions at 20 percent below 2006 levels by 2020. The Saskatchewan Act also has many similarities to the approach taken in Alberta including: the Saskatchewan Technology Fund that creates an initial $15/tonne cap on GHG reduction costs, a Climate Change Foundation which takes unused funds from the Tech Fund to also create GHG reductions, and regulations including GHG offsets to be developed by fall to come into force by 2010. Another significant feature of the Saskatchewan approach is the pursuit of an "Equivalency Agreement" with the Federal Government which would consider the Province's actions on GHG reductions as equal to future Federal actions on climate change. This would allow the Province to keep the Tech funding.
Manitoba adopted "The Climate Change and Emissions Reduction Act" which takes the unusual step of bringing into law GHG reductions inline with Canada's commitments on Kyoto, namely a 6% reduction below 1990 levels by 2012. It is also committed to a cap and trade system through its membership in the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) and must lay out long term reduction plans. While reduction plans past the 2012 time period are unclear at this point, they are expected to emerge in the near future. Given the history and current approach of Manitoba on climate change, a combination of regulated reductions and even a carbon tax could be expected.
So it would appear that each Province in western Canada will have its own climate change solution at least for the interim. The next issue will be how the Provincial programs line up with what is happening in the United States (US), since this would appear to be more of a driver than the non-existent Canadian Federal policy in the area. Therefore, we will look to what ultimately comes out of the US as the road map for future GHG regulations and the use of offsets in Canada.
Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.
Market News
Fundamental Analysis
USDA report May 12, 2009.
Technical Indicators
I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.
Canola - November Futures
Hard Red Spring Wheat- December Futures
Barley - July Futures
Canadian Dollar - September futures
International Crop and Weather News
England: "Recent rains have significantly improved crop prospects across the country. Winter wheat is at booting and barley in ear. Winter OSR late flowering to full pod set. However yield potential still significantly lower than last year in most crops." Nick Ward, Lincolnshire
Ontario: "Crop seeding got off to a slow start this year due to cold weather and too much moisture. All of the corn planted in this area was planted in too wet conditions and was mostly planted 2 to 3 weeks late. This past week the weather turned hot and dry and farmers have been planting soybeans at a record rate. Frost hit some of the earlier corn about 10 days ago but I think it will grow out of it." Jack Rigby, Blenheim
South Australia: "For the Eyre Peninsula most people have finished seeding, with 10% stopping seeding because of lack of that wet stuff. Temperature is a little above normal with generally very calm conditions allowing for good spray opportunities. Moisture is below average, ideal in the southern areas, but most areas are really in need of some rain. Compared to last season, crops are in earlier, with good potential. Although drier than this time last year emerging crops are doing well. Moisture requirements are low at this stage." Mark Modra
New South Wales: "After the good rains at the end of April there has been no follow up rains of any consequence since. Planting is around 50% complete but some growers have stopped because they don't have enough moisture to sow on but too much to dry sow with. Temperatures have been slightly above average and together with almost no frost events yet, have meant the crops have been quick to germinate. They are going to need some rain very soon as many farmers around here have had less than 3 inches of rain for the year and there is no subsoil moisture. Unfortunately there is nothing forecast in the immediate future. Livestock producers are suffering badly as there is next to no growth in pastures. I would estimate that over 50% of the cattle from the region have left in the last month. They have either been sold or shipped to northern NSW & Queensland on agistment." Murray Scholz, Culcairn
Queensland: "Crops have been given a huge boost in many areas due to a rain event that has produced between 50 to 100mm of rain over most of the southern cropping region. This will see a large planting that was not going to happen without the rain. For some, this has been the best rain in 3 or 4 years. Some early crops of wheat, barley and chickpeas that last week were struggling will now fly. The planting window is ideal and the diesel will burn in a big way over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Another rain event in 4 weeks would see potentials at the upper side of average." Ronald Thompson
New Zealand: "We've had 140 mm of rain in the last 3 weeks and there has not been any wheat sown in the last 3-4 weeks so not much progress. There will be at least 30% less feed wheat and these contracts look like they will be about $340/t NZ." Craige Mackenzie, Methven
United States: In the West, very warm, dry weather favors fieldwork and crop development. In addition, high-elevation snow packs are rapidly melting across the northern half of the region. On the Plains, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are affecting areas from Texas to Nebraska. Rain is especially beneficial in drought-stricken areas of Texas, but fieldwork has been slowed by wet conditions across parts of the central and southern Plains. In the Corn Belt, warm weather is confined to areas west of the Missouri River. Elsewhere in the Midwest, recent and ongoing showers have slowed a torrid planting pace. In particular, corn and soybean planting had accelerated across the central and eastern Corn Belt during last week's warm, dry regime and had continued through much of the holiday weekend.
Europe: Locally heavy rain in England, France, and Germany maintains abundant soil moisture for reproductive winter crops but hampers planting of corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets. Showers in Poland and the Balkans provide much-needed topsoil moisture for wheat and rapeseed. Dry weather in central Spain maintains high irrigation demands for filling winter wheat and barley.
Former Soviet Union: Light to moderate showers in Ukraine and western Russia favor winter grains in the jointing stage of development and cause only brief delays in spring grain and summer crop planting. Unseasonably warm, dry weather in eastern Russia and Kazakhstan aids spring grain planting.
Southeast Asia: Drier weather eases wetness in the northern Philippines after two weeks of torrential rainfall. Heavy monsoon rain favors newly planted rice and corn in Thailand.
East Asia: Rain continues to benefit emerging to vegetative summer crops on the North China Plain and the Yangtze Valley, but drier weather would be welcomed for maturing winter wheat and rapeseed.
South Asia: Showers and thunderstorms across India provide early moisture for rice and cotton.
Middle East: Dry, warm weather in Turkey and Iran accelerates winter grains toward maturity and promotes cotton planting and wheat harvesting (south).
North Africa: Sunny skies accelerate winter grain maturation and harvesting in Morocco and western Algeria, while locally heavy rain in eastern Algeria and northern Tunisia slows wheat maturation and harvesting.
Australia: In eastern Australia, dry weather continues to favor summer crop harvesting, which is well advanced. Mostly dry weather aids local winter grain planting in southern and Western Australia, but soaking rains are needed across much of the wheat belt to trigger more widespread sowing.
South America: In southern Brazil, moderate to heavy rain helps to stabilize immature corn and provides a needed boost in topsoil moisture for newly sown winter wheat. Light showers bring limited drought relief to Argentina's southern farming areas, but much more rain will be needed to significantly improve prospects for winter wheat emergence and pasture recovery.
Canada: Mostly dry weather over the past week allowed farmers to make seeding progress, with overall planting now about 78 per cent complete, slightly behind normal. Significant differences exist between provinces on seeding progress, with Alberta nearly finished and Manitoba struggling to be two-thirds complete. Near-record cold temperatures in many regions caused concerns for earlier-planted crops. Rain on the weekend provided useful moisture for southern Alberta and Saskatchewan but negatively affected seeding activity in Manitoba.
Mexico: Rain develops on the southern plateau, likely spurring the early stages of corn planting. Unseasonable warmth and dryness persist, however, in the winter sorghum areas in the northeast.
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