Beyond Agronomy News: June 30th, 2009

Agronomy

Crop Staging (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills as of June 30, 2009)

This Week in Scouting

• Avoid spraying herbicides with 2,4-D or dicamba to reduce plant stress.
• Begin sweeping for cabbage seedpod weevils, especially on fields that bloom first.
• Continue important post herbicide efficacy checks. There have been some second flushes of volunteer canola, cleavers and green foxtail.
• Begin scouting for disease in cereal crops. The risk of any infection is low but still possible. I have found some tan spot in wheat, net blotch in malt barley and a mild case of barley yellow dwarf virus. Nothing worth spraying but definitely worth monitoring.

Early planted wheat showing signs of drought stress

Late last week, early planted wheat started to show signs of drought stress as bottom leaves began to yellow off and begin to drop. The picture on the right taken yesterday shows wheat that's no more than 12 inches tall with heads emerging near Three Hills. With peak water demand occurring at head emergence, crops in many areas are in dire need of moisture to maintain yield potential.

If you're in the mood for another farm trial, both BASF and Syngenta sell fungicides that promote health benefits aside from disease suppression. The health benefits include delayed leaf senescence and better water use efficiency. Delaying leaf drop allows the plant more time to produce carbohydrates and increase grain fill. The two products I would recommend trying are Quilt by Syngenta and Headline by BASF. Both products are in that eight dollar acre range and might be worth a try on a few acres. The optimum timing to help with delayed senescence is during head emergence. Food for thought. SL

Yield potential going into July 2009

With very little precipitation to date, I thought I'd put together an estimate of yield potential based on soil types to help you with grain marketing and further crop protection decisions. For every inch of precipitation we receive from here on in, it will add roughly 4 bushels of canola, 6 bushels of wheat and 8 bushels of barley. These numbers should give you an idea of whether you'll be able to fill your production contracts, start pricing grain or take a vacation until late August. SL

Post-herbicide efficacy checks pay dividends

The spotty showers over the last two weeks have brought on a new flush of weeds in some areas. Unfortunately, some fields will require a re-spray to control late germinating weeds. If you've had flushing cleavers, volunteer canola or annual sowthistle in the past, it might be a good idea to recheck your fields. The open crop canopy this year will give more than enough room for weeds to grow.

During a routine post herbicide efficacy check on a few wheat fields I noticed a huge amount of flushing cleavers coming on. Shown in the photo here, the cleavers were in the cotyledon stage and germinated two weeks after spraying the initial in crop treatment. The crop was 6 leaf, 2 tiller and needed to be re-sprayed. With the reduced canopy closure, the risk of adding significant amounts of cleavers to the seedbank was high. I decided to go in with an 75% rate of Frontline XL. Had we not checked herbicide efficacy these fields would have ended up a mess. Bottom line: Jump into your fields and have a good look; it could save you a lot of grief at harvest. SL

Factors promoting leaf disease development

1. Seeding wheat after wheat or barley after barley.
2. Abundance of over-wintered straw and stubble (result of zero- or min-tillage).
3. Above-normal levels of precipitation in early- and mid-season.
4. Lush, dense crop stands (elevates humidity within the canopy).
5. Production of varieties susceptible to leaf diseases.

For detailed information on crop diseases follow these links:
Diseases of Cereal Crops Diseases of Oilseed Crops
Diseases of Field Peas

Fungicide decision making

Source: Syngenta
Fungicide selector

Bloom staging in canola

1. Count the open flowers on the main stem including the aborted flowers and newly formed pods.
2. It generally takes 2 to 4 days for the main stem to move from first flower to 10% bloom.
3. 10% bloom has 10 open flowers on the main stem.
4. 20% bloom has 14 to 16 flowers on the main stem.
5. 30% bloom has 20 flowers on the main stem. Six to eight days after the start of flowering.
6. 50% bloom has more than 20 flowers on the main stem.

Source and photo source: Canola Council of Canada

Cabbage Seedpod Weevil

The early seeded canola is now bolting and up to 5% bloom which is the time to begin monitoring for cabbage seedpod weevils. Seedpod weevils are attracted to fields that flower the earliest. The adult weevils are an ashy, charcoal gray colour approximately 3 mm long with a pronounced snout. The adults feed on buds, flowers, stems and pods. The adult weevils lay their eggs inside developing pods where the eggs hatch and larvae begin to feed on the seeds. Each larva can consume up to 5 seeds during its development, which can equate to a 15-20 % yield loss. The tiny exit holes left in the pods after the weevils emerge cause early shattering, and provide an entry point for disease.

The threshold for cabbage seedpod weevil is 2 to 3 weevils per sweep. The proper technique to sweep for weevils is to do ten 180-degree sweeps in four locations. Be sure to move away from the headlands and pick areas that are representative of the field. Weevils are typically higher in number along field edges. Sweeping should take place from bud stage through flowering. The best time to apply an insecticide is the 10-20% bloom stage if possible to avoid harming the beneficial insects in canola.

It is important not to spray too soon, as the weevil will typically continue to invade for at least a week to 10 days beyond the opening of the first flowers. The optimum time to spray for cabbage seedpod weevil is early flowering, or more specifically, when 70% of plants have 3-10 open flowers. Spraying at this stage will allow the weevils more time to move into the field, but it is still early enough to keep them from laying a significant number of eggs in newly forming pods while helping to protect beneficial insects, including pollinators, which have moved into the field. SL

For additional information and pictures: Link: Alberta Agriculture

Reference: Canola Council of Canada
Photo: Adult cabbage seedpod weevil, Source: Canola Council of Canada

Canola insect thresholds

Beet Webworm: 2 per ft2
Bertha Armyworm: 2 per ft2
Cabbage Seedpod Weevil: 2 per sweep
Diamondback Moth: early flower: 10 to 15 larvae / square foot if bud feeding
Diamondback Moth: late flowering to pod ripening: 20 to 30 larvae / square foot if pod feeding
Lygus Bugs: 2 to 3 per sweep

For more information on identification and control of canola insect pests see Canola Council of Canada.

Carbon Market News

Obama's First Victory on US Climate Change Policy

June 29, 2009- President Obama won his first victory on climate change policy in the United States (US) when the House of Representatives passed the "America Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009," sponsored by Representatives Henry Waxman and Ed Markey, last Friday. The Bill passed by a narrow and arguably well planned margin of 219 to 212 votes. While the final outcome of the Bill is still somewhat uncertain as it still has to clear the US Senate, it is well on its way to becoming law in the US and the guiding policy for Canada to follow.

The Bill, among other things, sets out mandatory greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions to 17% below 2005 levels by the year 2020 and 83% below 2005 levels by the year 2050. To achieve these targets, industry or large final emitters would be obliged to participate, starting in 2012, in a cap-and-trade program where the total number of permits to emit GHGs would decline over time. However, flexibility would be created by allowing those firms with excess permits to "trade" them to those firms requiring additional permits.

In addition to trading emission permits, additional flexibility is also created through a GHG offset system. The Bill defines the use of up to 2 billion tons of GHG offsets annually, with 1 billion tons from domestic sources and 1 billion from foreign sources. To garner support for the Bill, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) replaced the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as the overseer of agricultural and forestry offsets in the final days leading up to the vote. This has significant implications for agriculture, including the potential to create a boom for ag-based offsets. Clearly the USDA is well positioned to introduce and support the use of both tillage and methane based ag-offsets as compliance tools, where this was considerably less clear under the EPA.

While the deal with the Agriculture Committee may have cinched getting the votes to pass the Bill in the House of Representatives, it was only by a narrow margin. It would appear that careful planning went into this. It is very interesting that the 44 Democrats who voted against the Bill where mostly from Midwest and Southern US States dominated by coal fired electricity generation and other energy intensive industries. In other words, it may have only been a narrow margin, but it allowed for the Bill to pass while not forcing some Democrats into difficult political choices.

The Bill now has the daunting journey of the US Senate ahead of it before Obama can sign it into law. It is unclear today what affect the Senate will have on the provisions of the climate change legislation; it is still poised to be completed by year end and possibly before most of the world meets in Copenhagen this December. The fact that US climate change legislation has made it this far this fast would not have been believed a year ago. Therefore, it is our opinion that the US climate change legislation will proceed and not likely see the delays and wholesale changes some experts would suggest.

The implications for Canada are almost inescapable. Included in the Bill are trade provisions to protect US manufacturers against imports from countries without similar or greater constraints on GHG emissions. Combine this with the position of the Canadian Federal Government to do pretty much nothing until the US acts, and then follow the US after that, and we should expect an offset system strikingly similar to that in the US. What will be really interesting is how Canada will make the equivalent GHG reductions to that of the US. This fundamental question must be answered and soon, given the 2012 start date of both the US legislation and the successor to Kyoto to be decided this December.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

USDA report May 12, 2009.

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

International Crop and Weather News

• United States: In the West, hot, dry weather prevails across the majority of the region. However, monsoon showers are developing a few days earlier than normal in the Southwest. On the Plains, scattered showers across southern areas are slowing winter wheat harvesting but aiding pastures and summer crops. Meanwhile, warm, dry weather on the northern and central Plains favors winter wheat maturation and summer crop growth. In the Corn Belt, dry weather and near- to slightly below-normal temperatures are promoting winter wheat harvesting and corn and soybean development. Unusually cool conditions and scattered showers are confined to the immediate Great Lakes region, north of the primary Corn Belt. In the South, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms stretches from northern and central Texas into Florida. However, hot, dry conditions persist in the drought-stricken western Gulf Coast region.
• Europe: Widespread showers over much of Europe maintain abundant to locally excessive soil moisture for filling winter crops as well as vegetative corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets. Persistent dryness in the southern Balkans stresses vegetative summer crops and filling winter grains.
• Former Soviet Union: In Ukraine, light showers and cooler weather continue to favor winter grains and spring-sown crops in the west while easing stress on crops in the south and east. In Russia, hot, dry weather increases stress on filling winter grains and vegetative spring-sown crops in the Volga District, while showers continue to favor vegetative spring grains in the Siberia District. In Kazakhstan, hot, dry weather in major spring grain producing areas reduces soil moisture.
• Southeast Asia: Monsoon showers return to Indochina, boosting soil moisture for vegetative rice and corn. Torrential showers renew flooding in the northern Philippines.
• East Asia: Widespread showers boost soil moisture for summer crops across China, while winter wheat harvesting nears completion. Tropical Cyclone Linfa strengthens to a typhoon before making landfall in southern China with heavy showers.
• South Asia: A multi-week lull in the monsoon continues in central and eastern India, raising concerns over a lack of soil moisture for summer crop planting. Showers progress into Maharashtra and much of southwestern India, encouraging planting of cotton and oilseeds.
• Middle East: Showers and thunderstorms in Turkey and northwestern Iran slow winter wheat harvesting.
• North Africa: Sunny skies accelerate winter grain maturation and harvesting.
• Australia: Widespread showers in Western Australia and South Australia maintain adequate soil moisture for winter grain and oilseed development. Elsewhere in the wheat belt, occasional light showers aid winter grains but allow fieldwork to proceed.
• South America: Rain benefits wheat in southern Brazil but is untimely for maturing cotton farther north in Mato Grosso. In Argentina, chronic dryness favors corn harvesting but worsens conditions for winter wheat emergence and establishment.
• Western Canada: Much-needed, warmer weather promotes the growth of spring crops, winter wheat, and pastures.
• Mexico: Rain improves moisture levels in western and southern farming areas, including the southern plateau Corn Belt.

Source: USDA

Canadian Prairies Crop and Weather Update

June 1st- 21st has brought drier and cooler than normal weather to the region. Timely relief occurred around June 21st in southern Alberta and north-central Saskatchewan. Since May 1st, rainfall over the Canadian prairies has generally been 50-75% of normal with the most stressed crops evident in west-central Saskatchewan, north-east Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Alberta. Near drought conditions exist in northern Alberta.

Crop development ranges from 7 to 21 days behind normal. Cool temperatures are offsetting dryness in establishing yields. King (1987) found that May and July are the most critical months. A dry cool May affects germination, tiller initiation and development and reduces the potential number of heads. Abandonment is expected be above normal.

The two most consecutive weather sensitive months in 2009 will be June 10th- August 10th given the lateness of the crop. In summary, overall crop conditions are fair at best with cool temperatures offsetting dryness and increasing the frost risk.

Source: Ray Garnett Climate & Crop Letter: Vol. 4 No. 20: June 05, 2009