Beyond Agronomy News: August 5th, 2008

Agronomy

This Week in Scouting

• Start scouting late-May seeded wheat for stripe rust.
• Continue scouting for lygus bugs, diamondback moths and bertha armyworms.
• Start looking for grain storage options for above average yields.

Stripe rust is here

We have a new arrival: stripe rust. I detected minor infections in some spring wheat fields around Lacombe, Beiseker and Calgary last week. The late US winter wheat harvest has delayed the arrival of stripe rust, so much so that it is no longer a concern for most.

Stripe rust can be economically controlled up until flowering or anthesis. The majority of our crops are past that stage, but if you do have some late-May or early-June seeded wheat, you may want to monitor them closely.

Over the past four years, the US has experienced earlier winter wheat harvests, which has sped up the arrival of stripe rust in Alberta. You can imagine the billions of spores that get released into the air during harvest, at which time they get picked up by wind and transported north to Canada. Most of the stripe rust is believed to have originated in the Pacific Northwest states like Washington or Montana. If you ever notice a strong south or southeast wind in July, be sure to check fields for stripe rust 3 or 4 days later. SL

For more on stripe rust refer to the July 3, 2007 issue of Beyond Agronomy News.

Hail cuts canola seed supply

I had a conversation with a seed grower from eastern Alberta last week and he mentioned something very important about next year's canola seed supply. Early last month, a major hail storm cut a large swath through Taber and other parts of southern Alberta. Where is the vast majority of canola seed produced? Companies like Monsanto, Dekalb and Bayer are now looking to multiply canola in the southern hemisphere to meet demand. I've heard price increases of $2 a pound for next year's seed. So, I'm sure you've guessed my recommendation-if you have access to canola seed you may want to purchase it now. Where does it end?! SL

Choose good location for insect sweeping

When sweeping for lygus bugs, be sure to sweep inside the field and away from the headlands. Also, please be sure that people you've hired or sent to sweep your fields are sweeping off the headlands. For example, I've counted 6 lygus per sweep on the outside round and then walked in 100 feet and found 2 per sweep. Please sweep responsibly. SL

Adjusting insect thresholds for multiple pests

If you happen to find multiple insects like diamondback moths, bertha armyworms and lygus bugs during your checks, then it may be necessary to adjust your thresholds. Feeding damage by more than one insect pest at the same time can create more stress on plants. While neither pest may trigger an economic threshold on its own, the combined damage could reduce yields quickly. A good rule of thumb for adjusting thresholds when two pests are present in significant populations is to reduce the threshold for each pest by 25%.

Source: Canola Council of Canada

Hail damage in canola: What have you lost?

Yield loss in canola is always difficult to estimate when hail hits during flowering, especially when you're trying to come up with a fair estimate with the hail adjuster. Here are some facts to give you an idea of what to expect for crop loss after hail:

• Any leaf area destroyed will result in seed yield loss.
• Seed yield losses in canola are approximately 25% of leaf area lost. If leaf defoliation is 50%, then yield loss would be approximately 12.5%.
• Seed yield loss will depend on both percent leaves and branches lost. For example, if canola has 60% lost branches 7 days into flowering, seed yield loss is estimated at 18%, whereas 21 days into flowering, yield loss would be an estimated 60%.
• If hail strikes late, such as during pod filling or ripening, plant recovery is not possible. The time needed to develop new growth, flowers and mature is limited before a killing frost.
• If injury occurs at the ripening stage then it depends directly on the loss of branches, individual pods and seed knocked out of pods. Severe hail losses have occurred in canola swaths.

Source: Canola Council of Canada

Bin it, bag it or put in on the ground?

With an above average crop in front of us, many producers are looking at storage solutions to avoid pilling grain on the ground. The cost of steel bins has risen dramatically over the last two years and even if you wanted one, the closest delivery time could be next December. A few of my clients have purchased or are looking at purchasing the grain bagger system by Wheat-Belt Industries. I'd like to run a quick comparison between a few grain storage options. Here we go:

1. 15,000 bushel steel bin with poured cement floor and aeration. Price: $49,000
2. Grain bagger system including loader and un-loader. Price: $45,000. Cost of the 6,000 bushel bags are $600 each. There are a few sizes to choose from.
3. Grain storage ring: Includes 46 inch high steel sheets with canvas cover and bolts. Price: $4,000

All three systems have merit but the grain bagger seems to hold many advantages. Those advantages include eliminating stored grain insects, storing tougher grain for longer periods of time, reducing labour, fuel and machinery requirements plus the flexibility of storing grain wherever you like. Think about this: A 4,000 acre farm could run two combines, a grain cart and a bagger. That's three people to harvest 4,000 acres and no trucks! You'll reduce waiting time, especially when you're harvesting barley and you have to wait for trucks. In my opinion, the initial $45,000 cost and the $0.07 per bushel cost looks well worth the investment. SL

Check out the Grain Bagger online at www.wheat-belt.com.

Demands on fertilizer affect price

You may be one of many producers who have already locked in all or nearly all of next year's fertilizer requirements. The bill this year happens to be twice the size and arrives during the lowest cash flow month of the year. In last week's newsletter, I shared some views from Westco on where fertilizer prices are and where they're headed. Unfortunately, that news wasn't rosy. This week I'll share some facts on world fertilizer demand and usage from the same presentation.

• For every one cent rise in the Canadian dollar, urea import prices drop $9.17 per tonne and phosphate (MAP) drops by $13.42 per metric tonne.
• The price of urea has gone down once in the last nine years.
• The Canadian Prairie market uses 4.5 tonnes of fertilizer annually.
• Canada consumes 1.25 to 1.5 million tonnes of urea each year.
• Canada exports 1.6 million tonnes per year.
• China added a 135% export tax on urea in April. This led to price increases after spring, which is unusual.
• India is subsidizing fertilizer prices heavily to encourage food production and prevent food riots.
• The Middle East and FSU are the largest exporters of fertilizer.
• Brazil and China are the largest importers of phosphate.
• Canada and the US are the largest producers of potash in the world.

Market News

Word on the street for harvest

After chatting with a few of my Aussie mates, it looks like Western Australia and New South Whales have had plenty of moisture in July and crops look decent. They're still a long way from harvest in December but so far, things are looking up. On another note, ProFarmer Australia just mentioned that although wheat yields in the Ukraine are above average, it looks like 80% of the crop is now feed wheat quality. That leaves room for premiums on good quality spring wheat which may still be in short supply. I've also read that barley yields in the EU have averaged 120 bu/ac and canola yields are roughly 60 bu/ac. SL

International Crop Weather News

United States: Hot, dry weather favors crop development and fieldwork, including Northwestern small grain harvesting. On the Plains, extremely hot weather persists across central and southern portions of the region, where today's high temperatures will again exceed 1050F in some areas. Meanwhile on the northern Plains, showers and thunderstorms are aiding immature summer crops but causing brief harvest delays. In the Corn Belt, thunderstorms are rolling across northern and western areas, but hot, dry weather continues elsewhere in the Midwest. Midwestern corn and soybeans have experienced minimal heat stress. In the South, hot, mostly dry weather favors rapid crop development, although some pastures and immature summer crops remain stressed by drought.

Europe: In the Balkans, locally heavy showers provide much-needed soil moisture for reproductive corn and sunflowers. However, the rain slows winter wheat harvesting. Dry weather returns to northern Europe, favoring winter crop harvesting. However, soil moisture remains limited for reproductive corn and sunflowers in northern portions of Germany and Poland.

Former Soviet Union: In western Ukraine, heavy rain causes local flooding and interrupts small grain harvesting. Hot, dry weather overspreads eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, stressing corn and sunflowers in the reproductive to filling stages but aiding rapid small grain harvesting. Hot, dry weather continues to stress spring wheat in the Urals District in Russia, while periodic showers favor crops in the Russian Siberia District and Kazakhstan.

East Asia: A narrow band of torrential showers from Shandong to the Sichuan Basin causes excessive wetness for reproductive summer crops, especially cotton.

Southeast Asia: Light showers maintain favorable moisture conditions for rice and corn in Thailand. Tropical Cyclone Fung-wong enhances monsoon rains across the Philippines, maintaining wet soil conditions.

South Asia: Showers in south-central India provide topsoil moisture for rain-fed cotton and sorghum, although more rain is needed.

Australia: Widespread rain and seasonably mild weather overspread much of the Australia wheat belt, maintaining generally favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and barley.

South America: Rain falls in Argentina's eastern wheat areas, but drought continues in western areas, including Cordoba and Santa Fe. Showers benefit the main winter wheat areas of southern Brazil, notably Rio Grande do Sul and Parana.

Canada: Conditions are mostly favorable for reproductive spring grains and oilseeds.

Mexico: Heavy showers (greater than 4 inches) generate localized flooding the in the lower Rio Grande Valley, but the rain misses most major farming areas.