Beyond Agronomy News: July 7th, 2009

Agronomy

Crop Staging Area (Calgary to Drumheller to Three Hills) as of July 6th.

This Week in Scouting

• Continue monitoring for cabbage seedpod weevils up until 30% bloom stage.
• Check fields with histories of annual sow thistle. A second flush of annual sow thistle has emerged in the last ten days. If you have fields with thin canopies or late maturity, give those fields a second look to avoid surprises later.
• Continue important post-herbicide efficacy checks.
• Continue scouting for leaf diseases in cereal crops.
• Avoid spraying herbicides with 2,4-D or dicamba to reduce plant stress.

Where do we sit for crop maturity?

Crop maturity is directly affected by the number of growing degree days we receive each year. Growing degree days is simply the calculation of the highest daily temperature plus the lowest daily temperature divided by two and subtracting five (ie: 200C + 100C ÷ 2 - 5 = 10 GGD). You subtract five because it is assumed that plant growth does not occur at less than five degrees Celsius.

Historical Growing Degree Days and Precipitation from May 1st to July 5th
2009: 551 and 2.9 inches rain
2008: 602 and 6.3 inches rain
2007: 628 and 7.5 inches rain
2006: 717 and 4.25 inches rain
2005: 589 and 4 inches rain
2004: 537 and 2.75 inches rain
Six-year average: 604 GDDs and 4.6 inches of rain.

To date we are 9% below the six-year average for growing degree days and have received 37% of the six-year average precipitation for this time of year. Barley requires 1,300 GDD's to mature, hard red spring wheat requires 1,600 GDD's and canola requires 1,500 GDD's. If the average GDD for the rest of the season is 11.5 (ie. 23 C + 10 C ÷ 2 - 5), then we should expect to be starting harvest around the 21st of September. We're going to need some significant heat and sunlight to speed up our wheat and canola crops. I'd start to plan a fall desiccation program to help speed up harvest. Then again, if the drought continues, we'll have a natural desiccation program on the go. SL

Crop disease report

Wheat: I've noticed just a touch of tan spot and septoria in several wheat fields, but nothing to be concerned about. The lesions can be found on the bottom leaves and I suspect these leaves were beginning to drop from the drought anyways. I don't think anyone's in a hurry to go out and spend money in this situation.

Barley: Some producers have sprayed malt barley recently with the odd bit of spot blotch and net blotch forming in Metcalf and Copeland varieties. Remember, applying a fungicide will provide roughly two weeks of protection so keep your eye on the weather forecast when making your decision.

Canola: I don't have one field in 7,000 dryland acres I would recommend a fungicide to control sclerotinia. I have applied Lance to some Nexera canola under irrigation because the risk of infection is high and the value of canola is over $10.00 a bushel.

Insect report

Leaf hoppers: After discovering aster yellows in barley near Three Hills two weeks ago, I think we may see an increase in aster yellows in canola this year. The last aster yellows outbreak was in 2007, if I remember correctly. Leaf hoppers spread the disease and there's nothing you can really do to economically prevent or control them. Just be aware if you do see signs of this disease.

The picture you see on the right is of Conlon barley taken two weeks ago near Three Hills. Not only did this field have aster yellows, but also barley yellow dwarf virus which is spread by aphids. You might notice the proud leaf hopper on the left side of the leaf. What you can't see are the six or seven aphids on the underside. This deadly combination took out a 20 acre area in a 300 acre field.

Cabbage seedpod weevils: I've only had two canola fields requiring control of cabbage seedpod weevils south of Highway 1. They were early seeded fields under irrigation so they had a great head start which attracted the weevils.

Wheat midge: Many wheat fields will begin flowering in roughly 10 days. I suspect with the lack of rainfall in May and June and the cool temperatures and late crop staging, wheat midge will not be a concern this year. We will still go through the motions at flowering time to determine if they have reached threshold, but I believe they will emerge too late to do any economic damage to wheat. Forecast map

Grasshoppers: I've only seen one grasshopper in my travels but sources tell me the northern half of the province may see a large increase in hopper numbers.

Provincial grasshopper guide

Running the numbers on yield loss from leaf disesases

The risk of leaf disease in cereals has been low until recently. The cool wet, weather has increased both yield potential and disease. Making the decision to apply a fungicide each year is not an easy one in our area. The variability in yield potential, grain prices and weather makes it a difficult choice for everyone. With that in mind, I've provided a handy calculation tool to help you determine what kind of yield loss potential you may have along with an example to help you decide whether a fungicide application is economical.

Yield loss equation for cereals:
Percent yield loss = 2/3 × percent of flag leaf area infected + 1/2 × percent of penultimate (second) leaf area infected ÷ 2
Example: Spring wheat $6.50 bushel with a 40 bushel yield potential
2/3 × 5% flag leaf + 1/2 × 10% penultimate leaf ÷ 2
3.3% + 5% ÷ 2 = 4.15% yield loss
40 bu/ac × 4.15% = 1.66 bu/ac yield loss

In this example, the yield loss works out to $10.79 ac, which wouldn't even cover the cost of an application of Tilt, which typically runs around $7.25 plus $7.50 for custom application. If you have your own high clearance sprayer, your cost would be roughly $10.00 an acre, bringing you to a breakeven in this example. However, I haven't factored in the yield loss from wheel tracks which usually adds another 2 to 4%.

Here is the yield loss potential from top four common leaf diseases in wheat and barley:
Tan spot: 3% to 15%
Septoria: 1% to 25%
Net blotch: 1% to 40%
Scald: 10% to 50%

I realize the risk of disease has been low this year; however, I would still keep an eye on the later seeded crops as they come into flag leaf. With the recent wet weather coupled with low 20 degree temperatures, yield and disease potential will increase. I believe the tools I've provided above will help you make the best decision possible. Remember, taking a proactive approach on your disease scouting will make you money in the long run. Complacency and indecision will cost you. Happy scouting. SL

Registered Fungicide Prices:
Quilt: 405 ml/ac = $12.25 ac
Headline: 120 ml/ac = $12.20 ac
Tilt: 202 ml/ac = $7.25 ac
Stratego: 200 ml/ac = $7.30 ac
Bumper: 120 ml/ac = $6.85 ac
Pivot: 120 ml/ac = $6.85 ac

Estimating yield potential

Estimated Yield Equations

Wheat yield = heads/ft2 x seeds/head x thousand kernel weight x 0.04356 ÷ 27.215
Example: 44 heads/ft2 x 18 seeds/head x 30 grams tkw x 0.04356 ÷ 27.215 kg/bu = 38 bu/ac

Barley yield = heads/ft2 x seeds/head x thousand kernel weight x 0.04356 ÷ 21.772
Example: 44 heads/ft2 x 20 seeds/head x 40 grams tkw x 0.04356 ÷ 21.772 kg/bu = 70 bu/ac

Canola development: Flowering to ripening

To provide a refresher and help you understand canola development a little better, I've put together a list of how canola develops from the onset of flowering.

1. Flowering stage begins when the main stem has reaches 30% to 60% of its maximum length.
2. Flowers open from the bottom to top on the main stem at a rate of 3 to 5 flowers per day for 14 to 21 days.
3. Flowers begin opening on secondary branches 2 to 3 days after the main stem.
4. Flowers are ready for pollination (by wind and insects) up to 3 days after opening.
5. Fertilization occurs within 24 hours after pollination upon which flowers will close and petals will drop.
6. Young pods are visible one day after petals drop.
7. Leaves begin to drop off (senesce) from the bottom upward.
8. Canola seeds begin to develop once the petals drop from the last flower on the main stem.
9. The seed coat expands until the seed is almost full size within the first few weeks of seed development.
10. Seed fill is complete 35 to 45 days after flower opening.
11. Seeds in the lower pods are ripe 40 to 60 days after the first flower.

Bloom staging in canola

1. Count the open flowers on the main stem including the aborted flowers and newly formed pods.
2. It generally takes 2 to 4 days for the main stem to move from first flower to 10% bloom.
3. 10% bloom has 10 open flowers on the main stem.
4. 20% bloom has 14 to 16 flowers on the main stem.
5. 30% bloom has 20 flowers on the main stem. Six to eight days after the start of flowering.
6. 50% bloom has more than 20 flowers on the main stem.

Steve's tips for canola insect scouting and spraying

1. Do not spray for cabbage seedpod weevils past 30% bloom. Why? Because the damage has already been done. Spraying should have occurred before 30% bloom which is the time weevils deposit their eggs inside the developing pods. Damage occurs in August when weevil larvae eat seeds then leave exit holes that cause premature shattering.
2. When spraying for lygus bugs, remember the economic threshold of 1 to 2 lygus per sweep begins at the end of flowering and not before.
3. Sweep inside the field and away from the headlands. Insect counts are always highest along the headlands where insects like lygus and weevils land first. I check one spot on the headland to see what insects have entered the field and then walk in to do my sweeps.
4. You cannot count Diamondback Moth, Bertha Armyworm or Beet Webworms thresholds using a sweep net. Count these insects by the square metre or square foot and multiply by 10. SL

Carbon Market News

How uncertainty has thwarted the carbon market

July 6, 2009- Do you ever wonder why we haven't heard of more carbon specific projects in Canada? The lack of policy certainty defining the marketplace for greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets, or carbon credits, and a number of false starts has kept all serious efforts to develop carbon specific projects at bay. With a lack of investment in GHG reduction projects and time running out as the world (including the US) looks to a new set of binding GHG reduction targets, Canada may be in for some painful adjustments.

A review of Canadian GHG reduction projects to date reveals that the vast majority of them occurred as a result of some other primary purpose. This can also be seen clearly in the Alberta GHG reduction system. For example, tillage based offsets are primarily an extension of a management practice that likely considered the financial value of no till well before the environmental benefit. Agriculture is not alone here, as we see many similar examples with industrial projects. This starts to make even more sense as we dig a little deeper.

Canada has had three false starts at creating a carbon market, and is currently engaged in following the US. Given this history and current setting, who would make a carbon specific investment? This could all be the symptoms of a new market, but it would appear that it has set up everyone in Canada to sit and wait for certainty before risking any more capital. Even in Canada's only mandated carbon market; Alberta, prices on offsets remain effectively capped at $15/tonne without any clarity on whether this will change any time soon.

Waiting for certainty may be the prudent thing to do, however the momentum for an international climate change deal at the end of this year in Copenhagen is building. Add to this the speed at which our largest trading partner is developing its own domestic GHG reduction policy and Canada's time table for adopting its own policy is set. So if we are faced with having to adopt significant reductions in GHGs with targets starting in 2020, why aren't we acting now?

I suppose one reason Canada has delayed so long in acting on climate change can be considered a bet on our largest customer, the US, not adopting climate change legislation. We are a country of natural resources and it takes a lot of energy creating a lot of GHGs to develop and market these resources. So there is an understandable reason for not wanting to harm the economic benefits created by this, since reducing GHGs is costly. Add to this that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow (that whole net present value thing) and why wouldn't we not want to maximize our returns today. The issue now is whether or not these returns may become very short term in nature.

Canada has allowed its emission profile to rise dramatically since 1990, the reference year for most of the climate change discussions, and now we may be forced to deal with it. This point has been driven home by the trade implications of the "America Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009," or ACESA now working its way through Congress. In particular, the ability for the US to slap trade sanctions on Canada if it doesn't meet comparable GHG reductions starting in 2020. This means that Canada has to have made comparable GHG reductions to the US by then, not starting then.

With a looming deadline and faced with having to make comparable GHG reductions to our trade partners, our policy options are limited. How does Canada get its act together in time? Likely through a combination of investment in technology, hard caps on GHG emissions from Large Final Emitters, and GHG offsets. Canada waiting for the world to act ahead of it is not likely going to give us much of what we need most, which is time. Therefore, the potential cost of Canada's bet is rising every day.

Reference: Bruce Love, Preferred Carbon

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only and are not intended to represent financial advice.

Market News

Fundamental Analysis

USDA report June 11, 2009.

Technical Indicators

I have set up these weekly updates to include market entry indicators to help you improve the timing of your grain marketing. Also, I added market trend indicators to give you a sense of the short and long term market trends.

International Crop and Weather News

United States: In the West, hot, dry weather prevails across the majority of the region. However, monsoon showers are developing a few days earlier than normal in the Southwest. On the Plains, scattered showers across southern areas are slowing winter wheat harvesting but aiding pastures and summer crops. Meanwhile, warm, dry weather on the northern and central Plains favors winter wheat maturation and summer crop growth. In the Corn Belt, dry weather and near- to slightly below-normal temperatures are promoting winter wheat harvesting and corn and soybean development. Unusually cool conditions and scattered showers are confined to the immediate Great Lakes region, north of the primary Corn Belt. In the South, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms stretches from northern and central Texas into Florida. However, hot, dry conditions persist in the drought-stricken western Gulf Coast region.

Europe: Widespread, locally heavy showers over central and Eastern Europe boost soil moisture for reproductive winter crops but hamper planting of corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets. Sunny, hot weather in Spain and Italy maintains high irrigation demands for filling winter wheat and barley.

Former Soviet Union: Light to moderate showers favor winter grains and spring-sown crops in northern Ukraine and Belarus but slow spring grain sowing across northern Russia.Showery weather in Kazakhstan and the Urals and Siberia Districts in Russia slows spring grainplanting but boosts topsoil moisture for crop emergence.

Southeast Asia: Monsoon showers benefit rice and corn in Indochina and the Philippines.

East Asia: Periods of dry weather benefit winter wheat harvesting on the North China Plain. Soil moisture is limited in western Heilongjiang for establishment of corn and soybeans.

South Asia: Tropical Cyclone Aila brings heavy rain and gusty winds to northeastern India and Bangladesh. Unseasonable showers across central and southern India provide early moisture for rice and cotton.

Middle East: Wet weather in Turkey hampers cotton planting and wheat harvesting but provides moisture for summer crop planting and establishment.

North Africa: Sunny skies accelerate winter grain maturation and harvesting.

Australia: Widespread, soaking rains in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales, and Western Australia boost moisture supplies for winter grain planting but cause local flooding.Mostly dry weather persists in southeastern Australia, further discouraging winter grain planting.

South America: In southern Brazil, warm, dry weather aids growth of emerging winter wheat and immature corn after last week's beneficial rain. In Argentina, dry, unseasonably mild weather promotes rapid harvesting of summer grains, oilseeds and cotton while hastening emergence of winter grains.

Mexico: Showers benefit reproductive winter sorghum in rain-fed farming areas of the northeast.

Source: USDA